Calculates climate change analysis as a post-analysis action using the specified analysis result as a reference analysis.
This operation supports analysis based on a variety of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios that project the impact of greenhouse gas emissions based on diverse climate policies.
During processing, the Climate Change Model recalculates average annual loss (AAL) and EP metrics for portfolio and treaty levels.
RCP scenarios
RMS Climate Change Models provide a probabilistic view of a range of representative concentration pathways (RCPs). They model the effect of climate change on hurricanes in the North Atlantic and on windstorms and floods in Europe. The Climate Change Models cover the same geographical scope as the RMS reference models for these regions.
rspScenario | Description |
|---|---|
2.6 | A pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W m-2 before 2100 and then declines to 2.6 W m-2. |
4.5 | An intermediate stabilization pathway in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 4.5 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2 after 2100. |
6.0 | An intermediate stabilization pathways in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 4.5 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2 after 2100. |
8.5 | A high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches greater than 8.5 W m-2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time. |
SSP scenarios
Climate Change Models provide a probabilistic view of a range of representative concentration pathways and encapsulate the current state of the science for the impact of climate change on wildfires in North America. These models cover the same geographical scope as the reference models for these regions and are separately licensed extensions to the existing reference models.
This operation supports four scenarios (1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5 ) that combine SSP scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SS5) and RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 7.0, 8.5). Each scenario represents a unique set of socioeconomic and emission trajectories. These combined scenarios create building blocks for articulating a global narrative that includes socioeconomic pathways and green house gas emission trajectories:
sspScenario | SSP Scenario | RCP Equivalent |
|---|---|---|
1-2.6 | SSP1:Sustainability ("Taking the Green Road") | 2.6 |
2-4.5 | SSP2: "Middle of the Road" | 4.5 |
3-7.0 | SSP3: Regional Rivalry ("A Rocky Road") | 7.0 |
5-8.5 | SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development ("Taking the Highway") | 8.5 |
Licensing
To calculate climate change analysis, you must license both the models used in reference analysis (i.e. the reference models) and RMS Climate Change Models for all sub-regions covered in the reference analysis.
Reference models include Europe Inland Flood HD Models, Europe Windstorm Models, Japan Typhoon and Flood HD Model, North America Wildfire HD Model, North Atlantic Hurricane Models, US Inland Flood HD Model
Permissions
To perform this operation, a principal must belong to a group that has been assigned the appropriate role-based permissions. The table identifies the roles with permission to perform this operation.
Underwriter Technical Underwriter Risk Analyst Portfolio Manager Cat Modeler YES YES YES YES YES To learn more about role-based permissions in Risk Modeler, see Groups and Roles.